Portfolio performance for the week ending April 15th...

So this week the energy and commodity sectors were particularly weak.  With the model over-weighting these based on the recent past performance, the portfolio was down compared to the SPY, and the model has underperformed since we started 2 weeks ago.

With last weeks performance, the model has underperformed the SPY by about .75% over the last two weeks.  This is the originally purchased portfolio which is traded on a monthly basis (other than any 40 week moving average violation).

The portfolio that updates on a weekly basis had slight underperformance compared to the original.

With the energy and commodities under-performing, I would expect either continued weakness and perhaps an intermediate top, or to see a reversal.  However, I don't trade on feelings, I wait for signals and over the long term plan to outperform and maintain capital.

BTW, I am also looking at trading off the 20 week moving average, as back tests have shown that at the expense of more trades and a lower win percent, both returns are increased and drawdowns are lessened.  This will be a topic for a future post.